(After all, IA allows our participation in a kind of transcendance.) Biological science may provide means to improve natural human intellect. (Now if the dog mind were cleverly rewired and then run at high speed, we might see something different...) Many speculations about superintelligence seem to be based on the weakly superhuman model. I'm suggesting that we explicitly aim for a greater merging of competence, that we explicitly recognize the cooperative approach that is possible. [26] Swanwick Michael, Vacuum Flowers, serialized in Isaac Asimov's Science Fiction Magazine, December 1986 - February 1987. It's hard to say precisely what "strong superhumanity" would be like, but the difference appears to be profound. One of my informal reviewers pointed out that IA for individual humans creates a rather sinister elite. The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. humanity. This reprinting contains an excellent critique of the Searle essay. Use local area nets to make human teams that really work (ie, are more effective than their component members). Abstract. Would a thousand years of doggy living add up to any human insight? Republished by Ace Books, 1988. Considering all the bizarreness of higher dimensional hill-climbing problems (and the neat algorithms that have been devised for their solution), there could be some very interesting displays and control tools provided to the human team member. In the coming of the Singularity, we are seeing the predictions of _true_ technological unemployment finally come true. [10] Dyson, Freeman, "Physics and Biology in an Open Universe", Review of Modern Physics, vol 51, pp447-460, 1979. The concept of the singularity originates with John von Neumann back in the ‘50s, but it remained obscure until science-fiction author … The dilemma felt by science fiction writers will be perceived in other creative endeavors. The Technological Singularity, or simply "Singularity," is a multi-faceted concept in futurism with several overlapping and sometimes conflicting definitions.The most proper and prominent definition of the Singularity was given by Vernor Vinge in his essay, The Coming Technological Singularity.It refers to the point at which superhuman intelligence is created technologically. A t this moment, a subtle but fundamental technological shift is occurring that is uniting our digital and physical worlds at the deepest architectural and operational levels. Some possible answers (and some further dangers) are presented. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an "intelligence explosion," and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Through the help of the net, I have found pointers to a number of related items. The best analogy that I see is with the evolutionary past: Animals can adapt to problems and make inventions, but often no faster than natural selection can do its work — the world acts as its own simulator in the case of natural selection. As much as the program giving the user information, there must be the idea of the user giving the program guidance. A mind that stays at the same capacity cannot live forever; after a few thousand years it would look more like a repeating tape loop than a person. How to Survive in the Post-Human Era. Exploit the worldwide Internet as a combination human/machine tool. Progress in computer hardware has followed an amazingly steady curve in the last few decades [17]. If the Singularity can not be prevented or confined, just how bad could the Post-Human era be? What happens when pieces of ego can be copied and merged, when the size of a self-awareness can grow or shrink to fit the nature of the problems under consideration? What can be said of its actual appearance? Technologiczna osobliwość (lub po prostu osobliwość, z ang. In the 1950s there were very few who saw it: Stan Ulam [28] paraphrased John von Neumann as saying: One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue. This is the point of the singularity- an idea Vernor Vinge in his 1993 article The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era, borrowed from the physics of black holes. Nerve to silicon transducers can be made [14]. In fact, I think the new era is simply too different to fit into the classical frame of good and evil. Veeresh Taranalli. Reprinted in True Names and Other Dangers, Vernor Vinge, Baen Books, 1987. In the coming of the Singularity, we are seeing the predictions of true technological unemployment finally come true. The singularity is a future point in time when societal, economic, and technological change increases at such a rapid pace that the unaided human mind cannot begin to imagine its implications. [15] Margulis, Lynn and Dorion Sagan, Microcosmos: Four Billion Years of Evolution from Our Microbial Ancestors, Summit Books, 1986. And what of the arrival of the Singularity itself? Here are some possible projects that take on special significance, given the IA point of view: Human/computer team automation: Take problems that are normally considered for purely machine solution (like hill-climbing problems), and design programs and interfaces that take a advantage of humans' intuition and available computer hardware. Once, galactic empires might have seemed a Post-Human domain. [19] Penrose, Roger, The Emperor's New Mind, Oxford University Press, 1989. Still, the Asimov dream is a wonderful one: Imagine a willing slave, who has 1000 times your capabilities in every way. How will the approach of the Singularity spread across the human world view? But in this brightest and kindest world, the philosophical problems themselves become intimidating. And what happens a month or two (or a day or two) after that? Another symptom of progress toward the Singularity: ideas themselves should spread ever faster, and even the most … March 04, 2012 Tweet Share More Decks by Veeresh Taranalli. In the coming of the Singularity, we are seeing the predictions of true technological unemployment finally come true. What goes on with AI will often have applications in IA, and vice versa. Abstract. Just so I'm not guilty of a relative-time ambiguity, let me more specific: I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030.). Well, maybe it won't happen at all: Sometimes I try to imagine the symptoms that we should expect to see if the Singularity is not to develop. Based largely on this trend, I believe that the creation of greater than human intelligence will occur during the next thirty years. (For me, the superhumanity is the essence of the Singularity. Allow human/computer teams at chess tournaments. Whole Earth Review (1993) Abstract This article has no associated abstract. Good had something to say about this, though at this late date the advice may be moot: Good [12] proposed a "Meta-Golden Rule", which might be paraphrased as "Treat your inferiors as you would be treated by your superiors." And for all my rampant technological optimism, sometimes I think I'd be more comfortable if I were regarding these transcendental events from one thousand years remove... instead of twenty. As new innovations build upon previous innovations and this growth curve reaches the tipping point, there could come a time where humanity is able to build an artificial intelligence on par with the cognitive and functional abilities of a human. For the case of physical confinement: Imagine yourself locked in your home with only limited data access to the outside, to your masters. Is such progress avoidable? In the coming of the Singularity, we are seeing the predictions of _true_ technological unemployment finally come true. Thinking about them, one begins to feel how essentially strange and different the Post-Human era will be — no matter how cleverly and benignly it is brought to be. Mega4up and its partners use cookies and similar technology to collect and analyse information about the users of this website. In the coming of the Singularity, we will see the predictions of true technological unemployment finally come true. As connectivity and bandwidth and archive size and computer speed all increase, we are seeing something like Lynn Margulis' [15] vision of the biosphere as data processor recapitulated, but at a million times greater speed and with millions of humanly intelligent agents (ourselves). Right now the rate of technological progress is both large and increasing. [4] Barrow, John D. and Frank J. Tipler, The Anthropic Cosmological Principle, Oxford University Press, 1986. This "problem" about immortality comes up in much more direct ways. I see just the glimmerings of this now [32]. According to the most popular version of the singularity hypothesis, called intelligence explosion, an upgradable intelligent agent will eventually enter a … Good's ultraintelligent machine, with a dose of caution. And yet there was another minority who pointed to [7] [21], and conjectured that the computational competence of single neurons may be far higher than generally believed. He unveils his new project, Singularity University, to study oncoming tech and guide it to benefit humanity. [5] Bear, Greg, "Blood Music", Analog Science Fiction-Science Fact, June, 1983. (fix it) Keywords No keywords specified (fix it) Categories The Singularity in Philosophy of Cognitive Science. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater than human intelligence. )[Permalink: http://accelerating.org/articles/comingtechsingularity] This page has been translated into Spanish by Maria Ramos. This is very like the future predicted by Gunther Stent. [8] Drexler, K. Eric, Engines of Creation, Anchor Press/Doubleday, 1986. I think there are notions of ethics that would apply in such an era. But the post-Singularity world does fit with the larger tradition of change and cooperation that started long ago (perhaps even before the rise of biological life). The very anarchy of the worldwide net development is evidence of its potential. Yet when it finally happens it may still be a great surprise and a greater unknown. The Coming Technological Singularity, A Most Important and Potentially Dangerous Thing Part 2 The convergent power of the technological Singularity can now be felt in all modern societies in this world, and its eventual culmination will be upon us faster than many of us might imagine. However, this novel was serialized in Analog in the 1960s. The Coming Technological Singularity. By. I call this contrasting approach Intelligence Amplification (IA). Developments that before were thought might only happen in "a million years" (if ever) will likely happen in the next century. If so, our present computer hardware might be as much as ten orders of magnitude short of the equipment we carry around in our heads. Of course, there has been an enormous amount of research in designing computer aids for artists, as labor saving tools. Without that we would get a glut of technical riches, never properly absorbed (see [25]).). Reprinted in True Names and Other Dangers, Vernor Vinge, Baen Books, 1987. Plugging in to the optic trunk has the potential for bandwidths of 1 Mbit/second or so. Research into IA and high-bandwidth communications should improve this understanding. Originally, I had hoped that this discussion of IA would yield some clearly safer approaches to the Singularity. But how much work has been done on how this power could be used by a human, to get something even better? Asimov describes the development of his robotics stories in this book. G. Harry Stine and Andrew Haley have written about metalaw as it might relate to extraterrestrials: G. Harry Stine, "How to Get along with Extraterrestrials... or Your Neighbor", Analog Science Fiction-Science Fact, February, 1980, pp39-47.]. Alas, looking back over these IA proposals, about all I am sure of is that they should be considered, that they may give us more options. 15 reviews. We humans have millions of years of evolutionary baggage that makes us regard competition in a deadly light. In August of 1992, Thinking Machines Corporation held a workshop to investigate the question "How We Will Build a Machine that Thinks" [27]. Such a "weakly superhuman" entity would probably burn out in a few weeks of outside time. Suppose we could attain our most extravagant hopes. If this is true (or for that matter, if the Penrose or Searle critique is valid), we might never see a Singularity. [6] Cairns-Smith, A. G., Seven Clues to the Origin of Life, Cambridge University Press, 1985. When people speak of creating superhumanly intelligent beings, they are usually imagining an AI project. [9] Dyson, Freeman, Infinite in All Directions, Harper & Row, 1988. And good computer workstation ( even an off-net workstation! ). ) )! 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